Will Matt Garman be the next CEO of NVIDIA?

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 99¢ · $87 held · ends Jan 1, 2029

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Jan 1, 2029View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 86%

Total Value

$87.14

Combined PnL

$0.49

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$86.04

Total Shares87

Combined PnL+$0.05

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.11

Total Shares184

Combined PnL+$0.44

No — 86%Yes — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$51.56	$51.69	+$0.13	32% 2879-6243 (9122)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$20.35	$20.27	-$0.08	50% 450-444 (894)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$5.98	$5.96	-$0.02	43% 778-1034 (1812)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$5.04	$5.03	-$0.02	47% 483-555 (1038)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99¢	$1.97	$1.98	+$0.01	79% 479-127 (606)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.67	$1.11	+$0.44	13% 28-182 (210)
AH aHjCz<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$1.09	$1.1	+$0.01	26% 1244-3525 (4769)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$51.56

Value

$51.69

PnL

+$0.13

Record

32%

2879-6243 (9122)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$20.35

Value

$20.27

PnL

-$0.08

Record

50%

450-444 (894)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$5.98

Value

$5.96

PnL

-$0.02

Record

43%

778-1034 (1812)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$5.04

Value

$5.03

PnL

-$0.02

Record

47%

483-555 (1038)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$1.97

Value

$1.98

PnL

+$0.01

Record

79%

479-127 (606)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.67

Value

$1.11

PnL

+$0.44

Record

13%

28-182 (210)

aHjCz<$100

Invested

$1.09

Value

$1.1

PnL

+$0.01

Record

26%

1244-3525 (4769)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.