Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska Senate first round by 6%-9%?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 96¢ · $348 held · ended Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$347.67
-$1.86
97.5¢ → 95.8¢
-2% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 49%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $97.97 | $97.97 | +$0 | 81% 35-8 (43) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $74.67 | $72.75 | -$1.92 | 16% 47-240 (287) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 96.9¢ | $58.16 | $58.2 | +$0.04 | 27% 909-2509 (3418) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $50.85 | $50.85 | +$0 | 38% 1226-1987 (3213) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $29.1 | $29.1 | -$0 | 29% 854-2135 (2989) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $19.4 | $19.4 | +$0 | 29% 2568-6178 (8746) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 96.9¢ | $19.38 | $19.4 | +$0.02 | 53% 5455-4894 (10349) |
Invested
$97.97
Value
$97.97
PnL
+$0
Record
81%
35-8 (43)
Invested
$74.67
Value
$72.75
PnL
-$1.92
Record
16%
47-240 (287)
Invested
$58.16
Value
$58.2
PnL
+$0.04
Record
27%
909-2509 (3418)
Invested
$50.85
Value
$50.85
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
1226-1987 (3213)
Invested
$29.1
Value
$29.1
PnL
-$0
Record
29%
854-2135 (2989)
Invested
$19.4
Value
$19.4
PnL
+$0
Record
29%
2568-6178 (8746)
Invested
$19.38
Value
$19.4
PnL
+$0.02
Record
53%
5455-4894 (10349)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.