Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska Senate first round by 3%-6%?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 82¢ · $756 held · ended Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 50%
$756.23
$189.39
30.3¢ → 82¢
+171% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Late
156h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
4 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 smellyEllie | Yesavg 30.9¢ | $366.13 | $693.09 | +$295.36 | 50% 1097-1093 (2190) |
AN anoin123CTR | Noavg 67.6¢ | $162.2 | $43.2 | -$119 | 44% 554-694 (1248) |
DO donthackme<$100 | Yesavg 8.3¢ | $1.06 | $10.48 | +$9.41 | 55% 42191-34106 (76297) |
E4 e46m3<$100 | Yesavg 8.3¢ | $0.83 | $8.21 | +$7.37 | 62% 35968-22491 (58459) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $3.42 | $0.81 | -$2.61 | 52% 9084-8296 (17380) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $1.6 | $0.44 | -$1.15 | 16% 419-2247 (2666) |
smellyEllieInvested
$366.13
Value
$693.09
PnL
+$295.36
Record
50%
1097-1093 (2190)
Invested
$162.2
Value
$43.2
PnL
-$119
Record
44%
554-694 (1248)
Invested
$1.06
Value
$10.48
PnL
+$9.41
Record
55%
42191-34106 (76297)
Invested
$0.83
Value
$8.21
PnL
+$7.37
Record
62%
35968-22491 (58459)
Invested
$3.42
Value
$0.81
PnL
-$2.61
Record
52%
9084-8296 (17380)
Invested
$1.6
Value
$0.44
PnL
-$1.15
Record
16%
419-2247 (2666)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.