Will Martin McDonagh win Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $383 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$382.55
-$1.55
99.3¢ → 98.6¢
-1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HA haveagoodday | Noavg 99.6¢ | $177.72 | $176.52 | -$1.2 | 39% 1397-2152 (3549) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $79.06 | $79.12 | +$0.06 | 52% 5311-4816 (10127) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $48.1 | $47.67 | -$0.43 | 35% 2903-5326 (8229) |
VI VictorLudorum<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $34.68 | $34.68 | +$0 | — 0-13 (13) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $29.66 | $29.66 | +$0 | 50% 4490-4436 (8926) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $14.88 | $14.89 | +$0.02 | 28% 2439-6150 (8589) |
Invested
$177.72
Value
$176.52
PnL
-$1.2
Record
39%
1397-2152 (3549)
Invested
$79.06
Value
$79.12
PnL
+$0.06
Record
52%
5311-4816 (10127)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$48.1
Value
$47.67
PnL
-$0.43
Record
35%
2903-5326 (8229)
Invested
$34.68
Value
$34.68
PnL
+$0
Record
—
0-13 (13)
balthazar<$100Invested
$29.66
Value
$29.66
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
4490-4436 (8926)
Invested
$14.88
Value
$14.89
PnL
+$0.02
Record
28%
2439-6150 (8589)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.