Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 11 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Marseille finish first in UEL league phase?

11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $40 held · ends Feb 28, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Feb 28, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$40.3

Combined PnL

-$65.63

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$40.3

Total Shares3,192

Combined PnL-$65.63

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yes	$21.76	$21.76	-$39.02	32% 3290-7152 (10442)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yes	$8.85	$8.85	-$15.83	58% 16855-12167 (29022)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$8.92	$5.2	-$3.72	40% 6571-9852 (16423)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.03	$1.3	-$2.33	17% 1362-6594 (7956)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$1.14	$1.2	-$2.14	23% 1809-6061 (7870)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.03	$0.92	+$0.9	27% 2547-6955 (9502)
P1 P1kasoCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$0.87	$0.59	-$1.06	61% 864-548 (1412)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.02	$0.26	-$0.47	17% 396-1983 (2379)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yes	$0.18	$0.18	-$0.31	25% 483-1460 (1943)
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$0.61	$0.03	-$0.58	28% 581-1491 (2072)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$1.07	$0.02	-$1.05	49% 6588-6939 (13527)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.76

Value

$21.76

PnL

-$39.02

Record

32%

3290-7152 (10442)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.85

Value

$8.85

PnL

-$15.83

Record

58%

16855-12167 (29022)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.92

Value

$5.2

PnL

-$3.72

Record

40%

6571-9852 (16423)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$1.3

PnL

-$2.33

Record

17%

1362-6594 (7956)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.14

Value

$1.2

PnL

-$2.14

Record

23%

1809-6061 (7870)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.92

PnL

+$0.9

Record

27%

2547-6955 (9502)

P1kasoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.87

Value

$0.59

PnL

-$1.06

Record

61%

864-548 (1412)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.26

PnL

-$0.47

Record

17%

396-1983 (2379)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.18

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$0.31

Record

25%

483-1460 (1943)

TheGreatBetaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.61

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.58

Record

28%

581-1491 (2072)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.07

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$1.05

Record

49%

6588-6939 (13527)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.