Will Mark Keough win the 2026 Montgomery County Judge election?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 98¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$4.1K
$297.22
93.1¢ → 98¢
+5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Late
208h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 macrosteaks | Yesavg 93.4¢ | $1.6K | $1.8K | +$87.78 | 54% 3256-2723 (5979) |
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754 | Yesavg 94.8¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$36.45 | — 7-2 (9) |
 FrozenParasite | Yes | $999.12 | $999.12 | +$134.45 | 55% 487-392 (879) |
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Yesavg 82.6¢ | $206.5 | $245.25 | +$38.75 | 50% 1219-1210 (2429) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Noavg 2¢ | $4.12 | $3.91 | -$0.21 | 47% 2041-2301 (4342) |
macrosteaksInvested
$1,649.12
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$87.78
Record
54%
3256-2723 (5979)
Invested
$1,049.03
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$36.45
Record
—
7-2 (9)
FrozenParasiteInvested
$999.12
Value
$999.12
PnL
+$134.45
Record
55%
487-392 (879)
Invested
$206.5
Value
$245.25
PnL
+$38.75
Record
50%
1219-1210 (2429)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$4.12
Value
$3.91
PnL
-$0.21
Record
47%
2041-2301 (4342)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.