Will Mark Kelly be the next US Senate Minority Leader?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $657 held · ends Jan 3, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$657.16
-$0
99.9¢ → 100¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys | Noavg 99.9¢ | $286.31 | $286.31 | -$0 | 36% 3058-5353 (8411) |
 bernardbulletin | Noavg 99.9¢ | $152.57 | $152.57 | -$0 | 70% 373-160 (533) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $66.43 | $66.43 | +$0 | 39% 274-427 (701) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $61.94 | $61.94 | -$0 | 78% 263-73 (336) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $59.94 | $59.94 | -$0 | 27% 909-2509 (3418) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.97 | -$0 | 29% 2584-6181 (8765) |
LucerysInvested
$286.31
Value
$286.31
PnL
-$0
Record
36%
3058-5353 (8411)
bernardbulletinInvested
$152.57
Value
$152.57
PnL
-$0
Record
70%
373-160 (533)
Invested
$66.43
Value
$66.43
PnL
+$0
Record
39%
274-427 (701)
Invested
$61.94
Value
$61.94
PnL
-$0
Record
78%
263-73 (336)
Invested
$59.94
Value
$59.94
PnL
-$0
Record
27%
909-2509 (3418)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.97
PnL
-$0
Record
29%
2584-6181 (8765)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.