Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Mario Bautista be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0.68

Combined PnL

-$71.14

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$0.68

Total Shares1,368

Combined PnL-$71.14

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Late

107h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yes	$0.44	$0.44	-$45.53	43% 8800-11450 (20250)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yes	$0.11	$0.11	-$10.95	53% 12589-11026 (23615)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.43	$0.07	-$7.08	34% 3341-6359 (9700)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yes	$0.03	$0.03	-$2.72	28% 2890-7443 (10333)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$15.93	$0.02	-$2.65	49% 6592-6945 (13537)
AU auros2CTR<$100	Yes	$0.02	$0.02	-$1.56	— 6-1 (7)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$0.63	$0.01	-$0.63	38% 2401-3836 (6237)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$0.21	$0.01	+$0.01	33% 7014-13992 (21006)
NadmiCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.03	$0	-$0.02	47% 2082-2393 (4475)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.44

Value

$0.44

PnL

-$45.53

Record

43%

8800-11450 (20250)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.11

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$10.95

Record

53%

12589-11026 (23615)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.43

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$7.08

Record

34%

3341-6359 (9700)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$2.72

Record

28%

2890-7443 (10333)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.93

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.65

Record

49%

6592-6945 (13537)

auros2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$1.56

Record

—

6-1 (7)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.63

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.63

Record

38%

2401-3836 (6237)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.21

Value

$0.01

PnL

+$0.01

Record

33%

7014-13992 (21006)

NadmiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

PnL

-$0.02

Record

47%

2082-2393 (4475)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Late

107h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.