Will Margo Martin be the next White House Press Secretary?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 97¢ · $713 held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$712.63
$162.02
96.7¢ → 96.6¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SH shiifoo | Noavg 96.6¢ | $326.34 | $337.77 | +$10.42 | 60% 3218-2158 (5376) |
 paddaaCTR | Yesavg 3.2¢ | $5.21 | $206.57 | +$145.05 | 57% 813-625 (1438) |
AV aviato | Noavg 97¢ | $160 | $150.43 | -$5.07 | 85% 2418-438 (2856) |
 Rex416CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $4.21 | $15.84 | +$11.63 | 57% 2500-1897 (4397) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.4¢ | $2.03 | $2.03 | -$0.01 | 57% 12908-9833 (22741) |
Invested
$326.34
Value
$337.77
PnL
+$10.42
Record
60%
3218-2158 (5376)
paddaaCTRInvested
$5.21
Value
$206.57
PnL
+$145.05
Record
57%
813-625 (1438)
Invested
$160
Value
$150.43
PnL
-$5.07
Record
85%
2418-438 (2856)
Rex416CTR<$100Invested
$4.21
Value
$15.84
PnL
+$11.63
Record
57%
2500-1897 (4397)
Invested
$2.03
Value
$2.03
PnL
-$0.01
Record
57%
12908-9833 (22741)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.