Will Marco Rubio announce a presidential run before 2027?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 98¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$1.6K
$128.49
92.7¢ → 97.5¢
+5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Late
1908h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 mombil | Noavg 94.5¢ | $721.19 | $703.52 | +$21.91 | 56% 1244-996 (2240) |
SI simpleman | Noavg 91.6¢ | $620.79 | $661.34 | +$40.54 | 47% 468-530 (998) |
HO HotDogs | Noavg 86.9¢ | $90.13 | $101.16 | +$11.03 | 93% 502-40 (542) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.3¢ | $62.33 | $96.3 | +$53.06 | 40% 6551-9831 (16382) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $52.64 | $54.63 | +$1.96 | 77% 12711-3879 (16590) |
mombilInvested
$721.19
Value
$703.52
PnL
+$21.91
Record
56%
1244-996 (2240)
Invested
$620.79
Value
$661.34
PnL
+$40.54
Record
47%
468-530 (998)
Invested
$90.13
Value
$101.16
PnL
+$11.03
Record
93%
502-40 (542)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$62.33
Value
$96.3
PnL
+$53.06
Record
40%
6551-9831 (16382)
Invested
$52.64
Value
$54.63
PnL
+$1.96
Record
77%
12711-3879 (16590)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.