Will Manuela Schwesig be the next Minister-President of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 70¢ · $2K held · ended Sep 21
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$2.4K
-$169.11
77.9¢ → 69.7¢
-11% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Late
250h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 3648393489047 | Yesavg 94.9¢ | $1.9K | $1.4K | -$477.05 | 61% 1117-704 (1821) |
0X 0xd361529b833f79206cea905500ddb56574144ccd | Yesavg 3¢ | $18.33 | $433.48 | +$415.15 | — |
 mrworldwide | Yesavg 97¢ | $307.76 | $214.97 | -$83.45 | 69% 803-359 (1162) |
 StarMaster | Yesavg 93.4¢ | $274.11 | $209.31 | -$64.8 | 53% 1837-1615 (3452) |
 viniiCTR<$100 | Noavg 9¢ | $17.46 | $58.49 | +$41.03 | 74% 2716-975 (3691) |
3648393489047Invested
$1,948.1
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$477.05
Record
61%
1117-704 (1821)
Invested
$18.33
Value
$433.48
PnL
+$415.15
Record
—
mrworldwideInvested
$307.76
Value
$214.97
PnL
-$83.45
Record
69%
803-359 (1162)
StarMasterInvested
$274.11
Value
$209.31
PnL
-$64.8
Record
53%
1837-1615 (3452)
viniiCTR<$100Invested
$17.46
Value
$58.49
PnL
+$41.03
Record
74%
2716-975 (3691)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.