Will Manchester City finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 English Premier League season?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 55¢ · $1K held · ends May 30, 2027
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Neutral
No
3
No 100%
$1.3K
$468.29
32.6¢ → 55¢
+68% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 probability | Noavg 30.2¢ | $531.02 | $870.45 | +$339.44 | 41% 1402-2013 (3415) |
JU justtryingtosurvive | Noavg 40¢ | $211.33 | $290.49 | +$73.88 | — 4-0 (4) |
DR Dreamwire | No | $142.18 | $142.18 | +$54.97 | 82% 2838-616 (3454) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.