Will Manchester City be relegated from the Premier League in 2026-27?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 61¢ · $1K held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
1 arb excluded
$1.5K
$106.25
61¢ → 61¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
183h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 StudyPrediction | Noavg 65.3¢ | $819.29 | $822.51 | +$3.22 | 54% 4514-3901 (8415) |
P1 P1kaso | Noavg 48¢ | $240 | $327.5 | +$87.5 | 63% 749-447 (1196) |
LE leegunnerCTR | Yesavg 25¢ | $80.35 | $144.63 | +$30.53 | 41% 1267-1820 (3087) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 60.3¢ | $87.87 | $87 | -$0.87 | 30% 277-642 (919) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 60.3¢ | $52.48 | $47.85 | -$4.63 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 40.7¢ | $35.39 | $39.15 | +$3.76 | |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100 | Yesavg 42¢ | $84 | $69 | -$15 | 43% 132-177 (309) |
StudyPredictionInvested
$819.29
Value
$822.51
PnL
+$3.22
Record
54%
4514-3901 (8415)
Invested
$240
Value
$327.5
PnL
+$87.5
Record
63%
749-447 (1196)
Invested
$80.35
Value
$144.63
PnL
+$30.53
Record
41%
1267-1820 (3087)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$87.87
Value
$87
PnL
-$0.87
Record
30%
277-642 (919)
Both legs:
Invested
$84
Value
$69
PnL
-$15
Record
43%
132-177 (309)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.