Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (60%). 8 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Malaysia win Eurovision Asia 2026?

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 40¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 15

Yes60¢No40¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

$64.98

Smart Money Entry

38.6¢ → 40¢

+4% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 40%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes60%

No40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares2,800

Combined PnL+$82.09

No8 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares5,560

Combined PnL-$17.11

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH TheImpasse	Yesavg 62.3¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$63.01	15% 4-22 (26)
AN anoin123CTR	Noavg 38.9¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$37.38	46% 464-547 (1011)
SB sbimbgCTR	Noavg 37¢	$185	$197.5	+$12.5	— 8-3 (11)
HaradwaithARB<$100	Yesavg 61.5¢	$538.04	$177.24	+$51.63	30% 108-251 (359)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 61.5¢	$124.34	$122.27	-$22.96
└ No leg	Noavg 39.5¢	$54.97	$54.97	+$74.58
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR	Noavg 37¢	$149.02	$103.21	+$6.59	8% 9-109 (118)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 37.3¢	$66.91	$70.95	+$4.04	65% 4251-2269 (6520)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Noavg 40.2¢	$54.92	$54.03	-$0.89	25% 91-280 (371)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 42¢	$40.17	$36.38	-$3.8	53% 6618-5816 (12434)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 37¢	$27.75	$29.63	+$1.88	27% 197-540 (737)
Lucerys<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$72.1	$22.99	+$131.42	36% 3613-6424 (10037)
E4 e46m3<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$0.61	$12.05	+$11.44	42% 2607-3596 (6203)
balthazar<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$0.13	$2.35	+$2.23	45% 4955-6107 (11062)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Noavg 39¢	$1.95	$1.9	-$0.05	37% 165-281 (446)

TheImpasse

Yes

Invested

$1,706.05

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$63.01

Record

15%

4-22 (26)

anoin123CTR

Invested

$1,673.82

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$37.38

Record

46%

464-547 (1011)

sbimbgCTR

Invested

$185

Value

$197.5

PnL

+$12.5

Record

—

8-3 (11)

HaradwaithARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$538.04

Value

$177.24

PnL

+$51.63

Record

30%

108-251 (359)

Both legs:

Yes$124.3461.5¢-$22.96

No$54.9739.5¢+$74.58

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR

Invested

$149.02

Value

$103.21

PnL

+$6.59

Record

9-109 (118)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$66.91

Value

$70.95

PnL

+$4.04

Record

65%

4251-2269 (6520)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Invested

$54.92

Value

$54.03

PnL

-$0.89

Record

25%

91-280 (371)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$40.17

Value

$36.38

PnL

-$3.8

Record

53%

6618-5816 (12434)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$27.75

Value

$29.63

PnL

+$1.88

Record

27%

197-540 (737)

Lucerys<$100

Yes

Invested

$72.1

Value

$22.99

PnL

+$131.42

Record

36%

3613-6424 (10037)

e46m3<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.61

Value

$12.05

PnL

+$11.44

Record

42%

2607-3596 (6203)

balthazar<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.13

Value

$2.35

PnL

+$2.23

Record

45%

4955-6107 (11062)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Invested

$1.95

Value

$1.9

PnL

-$0.05

Record

37%

165-281 (446)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 40%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.2%

40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$136.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

236.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.