Will Maine be the closest Senate race in 2026?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 92¢ · $115 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$115.2
-$0.77
91.8¢ → 92.3¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 92.1¢ | $36.85 | $36.48 | -$0.37 | 50% 7877-8002 (15879) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 91.7¢ | $33.14 | $32.97 | -$0.17 | 57% 8740-6627 (15367) |
LP lpgb<$100 | Noavg 91.5¢ | $29.28 | $29.18 | -$0.1 | 24% 268-863 (1131) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 92.1¢ | $13.82 | $13.68 | -$0.14 | 79% 10806-2829 (13635) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100 | Noavg 91.2¢ | $2.61 | $2.61 | +$0 | 45% 2378-2946 (5324) |
Invested
$36.85
Value
$36.48
PnL
-$0.37
Record
50%
7877-8002 (15879)
Invested
$33.14
Value
$32.97
PnL
-$0.17
Record
57%
8740-6627 (15367)
Invested
$29.28
Value
$29.18
PnL
-$0.1
Record
24%
268-863 (1131)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$13.82
Value
$13.68
PnL
-$0.14
Record
79%
10806-2829 (13635)
Invested
$2.61
Value
$2.61
PnL
+$0
Record
45%
2378-2946 (5324)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.