Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (75%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Mai Vang win the CA-07 House seat?

2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 25¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 4

Yes25¢No75¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

-$588.96

Smart Money Entry

46.9¢ → 25¢

-47% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes25%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares4,235

Combined PnL+$525.1

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares4,856

Combined PnL$-1.1K

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
macrosteaks	No	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$525.1	54% 3273-2740 (6013)
AN anoin123CTR	Yesavg 47¢	$2.3K	$1.2K	$-1.1K	47% 480-535 (1015)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$6.73	$4.82	-$1.91	23% 177-599 (776)

macrosteaks

Invested

$3,176.24

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$525.1

Record

54%

3273-2740 (6013)

anoin123CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,272.65

Value

$1.2K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

47%

480-535 (1015)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.73

Value

$4.82

PnL

-$1.91

Record

23%

177-599 (776)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance27.0%

25.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$270.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

370.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.