Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (17%) · No at 99¢ · $7K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 17%
$6.6K
-$141.86
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI Bigggggggg | Noavg 99.2¢ | $6.5K | $6.5K | -$15.28 | 45% 2761-3311 (6072) |
QM QMG-CORECTR | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $137.86 | $36 | -$101.86 | 77% 1392-412 (1804) |
 LornaPredictsCTR | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $770.75 | $9.25 | +$0.56 | 18% 525-2348 (2873) |
0X 0xd361529b833f79206cea905500ddb56574144ccdCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.2¢ | $33.02 | $9.02 | -$24.02 | — 1-0 (1) |
 archaicCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.3¢ | $5.46 | $4.83 | -$0.42 | 85% 1880-338 (2218) |
LJ LJa7io23MCv954jCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $3.02 | $2.09 | -$0.84 | 64% 82-46 (128) |
Invested
$6,548.69
Value
$6.5K
PnL
-$15.28
Record
45%
2761-3311 (6072)
Invested
$137.86
Value
$36
PnL
-$101.86
Record
77%
1392-412 (1804)
LornaPredictsCTRInvested
$770.75
Value
$9.25
PnL
+$0.56
Record
18%
525-2348 (2873)
Invested
$33.02
Value
$9.02
PnL
-$24.02
Record
—
1-0 (1)
archaicCTR<$100Invested
$5.46
Value
$4.83
PnL
-$0.42
Record
85%
1880-338 (2218)
Invested
$3.02
Value
$2.09
PnL
-$0.84
Record
64%
82-46 (128)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.