Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 14 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Mahershala Ali win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?

14 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $5 held · ends Mar 14, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Mar 14, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$4.6

Combined PnL

-$91.58

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 14 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes14 traders

Total Value$4.6

Total Shares4,787

Combined PnL-$91.58

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Late

106h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$2.91	$1.22	-$5.44	47% 1401-1578 (2979)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.26	$0.99	-$4.4	50% 66284-66816 (133100)
RA rainbowliliesCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$22.92	$0.82	-$22.09	38% 3028-4886 (7914)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$26.71	$0.59	-$26.12	43% 18729-24498 (43227)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$25.08	$0.55	-$24.52	37% 16949-29332 (46281)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.56	$0.14	-$0.56	14% 9536-61063 (70599)
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yes	$0.1	$0.1	-$0.44	31% 2585-5634 (8219)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$2.58	$0.06	-$2.52	47% 47657-54243 (101900)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$1.91	$0.04	-$1.86	35% 1183-2186 (3369)
0X 0x0E7Fa09bF44514634293b5ecC2420C50ABCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$1.3	$0.03	-$1.28	44% 167-213 (380)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$1	$0.02	-$0.98	45% 7293-8812 (16105)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$0.75	$0.02	-$0.73	23% 2598-8905 (11503)
VA vamosgamingCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$0.53	$0.01	-$0.52	17% 246-1180 (1426)
FO fourcoin15mCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$0.11	$0	-$0.11	34% 6259-12412 (18671)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.91

Value

$1.22

PnL

-$5.44

Record

47%

1401-1578 (2979)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.26

Value

$0.99

PnL

-$4.4

Record

50%

66284-66816 (133100)

rainbowliliesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.92

Value

$0.82

PnL

-$22.09

Record

38%

3028-4886 (7914)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.71

Value

$0.59

PnL

-$26.12

Record

43%

18729-24498 (43227)

god83743894CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.08

Value

$0.55

PnL

-$24.52

Record

37%

16949-29332 (46281)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.56

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$0.56

Record

14%

9536-61063 (70599)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.1

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$0.44

Record

31%

2585-5634 (8219)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.58

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$2.52

Record

47%

47657-54243 (101900)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.91

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$1.86

Record

35%

1183-2186 (3369)

0x0E7Fa09bF44514634293b5ecC2420C50ABCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.3

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$1.28

Record

44%

167-213 (380)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.98

Record

45%

7293-8812 (16105)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.75

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.73

Record

23%

2598-8905 (11503)

vamosgamingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.53

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.52

Record

17%

246-1180 (1426)

fourcoin15mCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.11

Value

PnL

-$0.11

Record

34%

6259-12412 (18671)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 14 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Late

106h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.