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4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $396 held · ends Feb 7, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$396.47
-$0.36
99.8¢ → 99.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Mature
22h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar | Noavg 99.8¢ | $229.41 | $228.88 | -$0.53 | 51% 4655-4529 (9184) |
GO god83743894 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $107.56 | $107.32 | -$0.24 | 17% 66-330 (396) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $43.8 | $43.69 | -$0.11 | 37% 3204-5379 (8583) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $15.61 | $15.59 | -$0.02 | 29% 882-2138 (3020) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.44 | $0.99 | +$0.55 | 12% 21-155 (176) |
balthazarInvested
$229.41
Value
$228.88
PnL
-$0.53
Record
51%
4655-4529 (9184)
Invested
$107.56
Value
$107.32
PnL
-$0.24
Record
17%
66-330 (396)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$43.8
Value
$43.69
PnL
-$0.11
Record
37%
3204-5379 (8583)
Invested
$15.61
Value
$15.59
PnL
-$0.02
Record
29%
882-2138 (3020)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.44
Value
$0.99
PnL
+$0.55
Record
12%
21-155 (176)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.