Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will M80 Win the PGL Major Singapore 2026?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $27 held · ends Dec 15
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$26.93
-$22.5
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Late
71h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $24.42 | $24.41 | -$0.01 | 46% 6652-7812 (14464) |
DG DG-NOCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $13.51 | $1.5 | -$12.01 | 38% 842-1356 (2198) |
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.75 | $0.75 | -$6.01 | — |
LP lpgbCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.6¢ | $2.5 | $0.14 | -$2.35 | 25% 697-2085 (2782) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $0.69 | $0.12 | -$1.99 | 50% 66284-66816 (133100) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.01 | $0.01 | -$0.12 | 22% 3495-12142 (15637) |
Invested
$24.42
Value
$24.41
PnL
-$0.01
Record
46%
6652-7812 (14464)
Invested
$13.51
Value
$1.5
PnL
-$12.01
Record
38%
842-1356 (2198)
Invested
$0.75
Value
$0.75
PnL
-$6.01
Record
—
Invested
$2.5
Value
$0.14
PnL
-$2.35
Record
25%
697-2085 (2782)
Invested
$0.69
Value
$0.12
PnL
-$1.99
Record
50%
66284-66816 (133100)
Invested
$0.01
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.12
Record
22%
3495-12142 (15637)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.