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NoYesNoNo
IstarothCTR<$100No
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was No — but Yes won instead.
Will LYON Reach the Worlds 2026 Knockout Stage?
Resolved Yes. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
4
No 50%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$126.96
Combined PnL
-$168.46
Smart Money Signal
No
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes100%
No0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes1 trader
Total Value$1.97
Total Shares2
Combined PnL+$0.02
No3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares258
Combined PnL-$168.47
Yes — 25%No — 75%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
YI yishiwuchengARB<$100 | Noavg 60.6¢ | $318.83 | $124.99 | -$193.84 | 51% 1825-1752 (3577) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 79.5¢ | $99.34 | $124.99 | +$25.65 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 60.6¢ | $219.49 | — | -$219.49 | |
MA MarquisDeMott<$100 | Yesavg 99.1¢ | $1.95 | $1.97 | +$0.02 | 98% 3315-82 (3397) |
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027CTR | Noavg 65.2¢ | $168.47 | — | -$168.47 | 57% 1091-812 (1903) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Noavg 24¢ | — | — | +$0 | 32% 4465-9568 (14033) |
IstarothCTR<$100 | Noavg 37¢ | — | — | +$0 | 19% 335-1419 (1754) |
YI
yishiwuchengARB<$100Invested
$318.83
Value
$124.99
PnL
-$193.84
Record
51%
1825-1752 (3577)
Both legs:
Yes$99.3479.5¢+$25.65
No$219.4960.6¢-$219.49
MA
MarquisDeMott<$100Invested
$1.95
Value
$1.97
PnL
+$0.02
Record
98%
3315-82 (3397)
0X
0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027CTRInvested
$168.47
Value
—
PnL
-$168.47
Record
57%
1091-812 (1903)
0X
0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
4465-9568 (14033)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
19%
335-1419 (1754)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x23ae2642...d26afa
Slug
will-lyon-reach-the-worlds-2026-knockout-stage