Will LYON be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings?
9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 100¢ · $897 held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 90%
$897.48
$0.46
99.8¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 50%
Freshness
Late
204h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Noavg 99.8¢ | $279.44 | $279.58 | +$0.14 | 53% 5671-5100 (10771) |
KO korda77 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $169.66 | $169.75 | +$0.09 | 84% 43-8 (51) |
GO godblessme2026 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $107.58 | $107.64 | +$0.05 | 27% 104-283 (387) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $99.8 | $99.85 | +$0.05 | 30% 2714-6211 (8925) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $80.84 | $80.88 | +$0.04 | 80% 48-12 (60) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $79.84 | $79.88 | +$0.04 | 51% 4655-4529 (9184) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $29.94 | $29.96 | +$0.02 | 24% 77-243 (320) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $29.94 | $29.96 | +$0.02 | 17% 76-374 (450) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $19.96 | $19.97 | +$0.01 | 26% 860-2483 (3343) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.03 | $0.03 | +$0 | 54% 565-474 (1039) |
Invested
$279.44
Value
$279.58
PnL
+$0.14
Record
53%
5671-5100 (10771)
Invested
$169.66
Value
$169.75
PnL
+$0.09
Record
84%
43-8 (51)
Invested
$107.58
Value
$107.64
PnL
+$0.05
Record
27%
104-283 (387)
Invested
$99.8
Value
$99.85
PnL
+$0.05
Record
30%
2714-6211 (8925)
Invested
$80.84
Value
$80.88
PnL
+$0.04
Record
80%
48-12 (60)
balthazar<$100Invested
$79.84
Value
$79.88
PnL
+$0.04
Record
51%
4655-4529 (9184)
Invested
$29.94
Value
$29.96
PnL
+$0.02
Record
24%
77-243 (320)
Invested
$29.94
Value
$29.96
PnL
+$0.02
Record
17%
76-374 (450)
Invested
$19.96
Value
$19.97
PnL
+$0.01
Record
26%
860-2483 (3343)
Invested
$0.03
Value
$0.03
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
565-474 (1039)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.