Will Lux (Rosalía) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 79¢ · $335 held · ends Feb 7, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
1 arb excluded
$335.23
-$9.41
83.5¢ → 78.5¢
-6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 59%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WA WarriorHARB<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $172.71 | $171 | -$1.71 | 17% 1116-5546 (6662) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 83¢ | $141.93 | $134.24 | -$7.69 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 18¢ | $30.78 | $36.77 | +$5.98 | |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $70.98 | $61.23 | -$9.75 | 61% 15751-10045 (25796) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $33.3 | $35.33 | +$2.02 | 61% 14659-9189 (23848) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $33.3 | $35.33 | +$2.02 | 41% 6811-9665 (16476) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $36 | $31.4 | -$4.6 | 49% 8663-9182 (17845) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.95 | $0.95 | +$0.89 | 78% 12157-3379 (15536) |
Invested
$172.71
Value
$171
PnL
-$1.71
Record
17%
1116-5546 (6662)
Both legs:
Invested
$70.98
Value
$61.23
PnL
-$9.75
Record
61%
15751-10045 (25796)
Invested
$33.3
Value
$35.33
PnL
+$2.02
Record
61%
14659-9189 (23848)
Invested
$33.3
Value
$35.33
PnL
+$2.02
Record
41%
6811-9665 (16476)
Invested
$36
Value
$31.4
PnL
-$4.6
Record
49%
8663-9182 (17845)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$0.95
Value
$0.95
PnL
+$0.89
Record
78%
12157-3379 (15536)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.