Will LSU Tigers win the 2027 CFP National Championship?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 93¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 26, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
$1.8K
$1.2K
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI milkteabobaCTR | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $138.97 | $1.3K | +$1.1K | 67% 33-16 (49) |
 Nooserac | Noavg 93.9¢ | $385.51 | $387.39 | -$3.45 | 52% 5695-5264 (10959) |
CO cowcatCTR | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $17.04 | $129.06 | +$112.03 | 53% 1548-1357 (2905) |
88 881112CTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $2.1 | $2.11 | +$0.01 | 37% 554-925 (1479) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.6¢ | $1.05 | $0.21 | +$0.21 | 77% 11126-3388 (14514) |
Invested
$138.97
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
67%
33-16 (49)
NooseracInvested
$385.51
Value
$387.39
PnL
-$3.45
Record
52%
5695-5264 (10959)
Invested
$17.04
Value
$129.06
PnL
+$112.03
Record
53%
1548-1357 (2905)
Invested
$2.1
Value
$2.11
PnL
+$0.01
Record
37%
554-925 (1479)
Invested
$1.05
Value
$0.21
PnL
+$0.21
Record
77%
11126-3388 (14514)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.