Will Louisville win the 2027 NCAA Men's Basketball National Championship?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 95¢ · $2K held · ends Apr 20, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
No
2
No 100%
$1.9K
$78.71
87.1¢ → 95.4¢
+10% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 95%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LE leegunner | Noavg 87¢ | $1.6K | $1.8K | +$70.49 | 39% 1303-2003 (3306) |
AB ABC12345654321 | Noavg 88.8¢ | $266.44 | $100.16 | +$8.22 | 50% 1695-1681 (3376) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.