Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 90¢ · $4K held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$4.2K
$98.42
87.2¢ → 89.5¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Debosnys | Noavg 87¢ | $4.0K | $3.8K | +$105.35 | 89% 1819-224 (2043) |
 ScottyNooo | Noavg 88.4¢ | $271.51 | $268.51 | -$3 | 50% 1527-1498 (3025) |
 LlamaEnjoyer | Noavg 90¢ | $121.46 | $120.79 | -$0.67 | 83% 2114-435 (2549) |
 GollumGekkoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $71.56 | $68.31 | -$3.25 | 69% 2060-923 (2983) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.