Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Louisiana be the closest Senate race in 2026?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.8¢ · $31 held · ended Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$30.74

Combined PnL

-$65.02

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$30.74

Total Shares3,842

Combined PnL-$65.02

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Late

164h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$37.03	$11.85	-$25.18	69% 16770-7378 (24148)
balthazarCTR	Yesavg 2.5¢	$858.44	$6.69	-$14.22	30% 35523-84044 (119567)
E4 e46m3CTR	Yesavg 2.5¢	$463.45	$3.59	-$7.62	62% 35968-22491 (58459)
HA haveagooddayCTR	Yesavg 2.5¢	$138.35	$3.01	-$6.39	40% 4010-6112 (10122)
LA lava-lavaCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$5.31	$2.02	-$3.29	44% 610-791 (1401)
RA RadioCCODCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$4.5	$1.76	-$2.74	36% 105-187 (292)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$2.94	$0.87	-$2.07	22% 3495-12142 (15637)
thanksforplayinCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$3	$0.48	-$2.52	55% 1477-1199 (2676)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$1.45	$0.46	-$0.99	29% 3599-8831 (12430)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.03

Value

$11.85

PnL

-$25.18

Record

69%

16770-7378 (24148)

balthazarCTR

Yes

Invested

$858.44

Value

$6.69

PnL

-$14.22

Record

30%

35523-84044 (119567)

e46m3CTR

Yes

Invested

$463.45

Value

$3.59

PnL

-$7.62

Record

62%

35968-22491 (58459)

haveagooddayCTR

Yes

Invested

$138.35

Value

$3.01

PnL

-$6.39

Record

40%

4010-6112 (10122)

lava-lavaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.31

Value

$2.02

PnL

-$3.29

Record

44%

610-791 (1401)

RadioCCODCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.5

Value

$1.76

PnL

-$2.74

Record

36%

105-187 (292)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.94

Value

$0.87

PnL

-$2.07

Record

22%

3495-12142 (15637)

thanksforplayinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.48

PnL

-$2.52

Record

55%

1477-1199 (2676)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.45

Value

$0.46

PnL

-$0.99

Record

29%

3599-8831 (12430)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Late

164h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.9%

0.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5245.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

5345.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.