Will Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (29%) · No at 89¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 25, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 29%
$2.9K
-$181.31
81.7¢ → 89¢
+9% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
1052h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA takeormake | Noavg 82¢ | $1.5K | $1.6K | +$127.89 | 53% 4424-3868 (8292) |
CH ChuDebbieSharpCTR | Yesavg 12¢ | $62.14 | $674.92 | -$352.73 | 52% 167-154 (321) |
ME MenacingTurtleCTR | Yesavg 9.8¢ | $201.96 | $225.54 | +$23.59 | 56% 252-195 (447) |
 probabilityCTR | Yesavg 15.3¢ | $208.95 | $177.61 | -$46.17 | 41% 1399-2007 (3406) |
0X 0x53eCc53E7<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $76 | $89 | +$13 | 43% 467-620 (1087) |
RA rainbowliliesCTR | Yesavg 50¢ | $14.99 | $52.75 | +$37.76 | 40% 2659-3917 (6576) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $17.65 | $33 | +$15.35 | 56% 3077-2423 (5500) |
Invested
$1,498.14
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$127.89
Record
53%
4424-3868 (8292)
Invested
$62.14
Value
$674.92
PnL
-$352.73
Record
52%
167-154 (321)
Invested
$201.96
Value
$225.54
PnL
+$23.59
Record
56%
252-195 (447)
probabilityCTRInvested
$208.95
Value
$177.61
PnL
-$46.17
Record
41%
1399-2007 (3406)
Invested
$76
Value
$89
PnL
+$13
Record
43%
467-620 (1087)
Invested
$14.99
Value
$52.75
PnL
+$37.76
Record
40%
2659-3917 (6576)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$17.65
Value
$33
PnL
+$15.35
Record
56%
3077-2423 (5500)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.