Will Los Angeles Rams win the 2026 NFC West?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 91¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 18, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$1.8K
-$632.24
59.5¢ → 90.5¢
+52% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
589h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
15 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x53eCc53E7 | Noavg 59.5¢ | $979.5 | $1.5K | +$510.91 | 44% 507-657 (1164) |
 TimeTravelerCTR | Yesavg 27.6¢ | $528.54 | $163.69 | -$364.85 | 41% 2127-3057 (5184) |
AN anciano | No | $1.3K | $135.57 | -$653.86 | 55% 1470-1226 (2696) |
 CUTJALENHURTSCTR | Yesavg 44.1¢ | $142.89 | $25.92 | -$112.11 | 52% 6157-5779 (11936) |
 probabilityCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28.5¢ | $20.81 | $5.84 | -$13.87 | 40% 1583-2384 (3967) |
PE peepeepooppoop<$100 | Noavg 55.8¢ | $2.56 | $4.1 | +$1.55 | 51% 2599-2533 (5132) |
Invested
$979.5
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$510.91
Record
44%
507-657 (1164)
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$528.54
Value
$163.69
PnL
-$364.85
Record
41%
2127-3057 (5184)
Invested
$1,310.97
Value
$135.57
PnL
-$653.86
Record
55%
1470-1226 (2696)
CUTJALENHURTSCTRInvested
$142.89
Value
$25.92
PnL
-$112.11
Record
52%
6157-5779 (11936)
probabilityCTR<$100Invested
$20.81
Value
$5.84
PnL
-$13.87
Record
40%
1583-2384 (3967)
Invested
$2.56
Value
$4.1
PnL
+$1.55
Record
51%
2599-2533 (5132)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.