Will Los Angeles FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (45%) · No at 96¢ · $4K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 45%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

-$280.98

Smart Money Entry

94.5¢ → 95.8¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares3,521

Combined PnL+$58.45

Yes6 traders

Total Value$567.37

Total Shares13,509

Combined PnL-$339.43

No — 45%Yes — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Late

796h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PU purplegatto	Noavg 94.6¢	$3.1K	$3.0K	+$34	49% 6195-6328 (12523)
SM smallreceiptARB<$100	Noavg 89.9¢	$227.29	$317.57	+$14.83	49% 8797-9307 (18104)
└ No leg	Noavg 89.9¢	$227.29	$242.12	+$14.83
└ Yes leg	Yes	$75.44	$75.44	+$0
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 96.4¢	$254.24	$252.67	-$1.57	43% 3158-4259 (7417)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 6.3¢	$367.11	$245.6	-$121.51	41% 2015-2858 (4873)
CO cowcatCTR	Yesavg 10.3¢	$356.8	$145.52	-$211.28	53% 1775-1556 (3331)
thefakenickCTR	Yesavg 5¢	$40.18	$106.39	-$18.36	56% 843-660 (1503)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR	Yesavg 15.6¢	$8.77	$66.02	+$12.4	51% 2399-2351 (4750)
0X 0x75d1B199a96801338e67a6eFAa35C0028eA87A5F-1770658242710	Noavg 87.7¢	$113.84	$49	-$8.22	52% 2151-2012 (4163)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 91¢	$42.76	$45.02	+$2.26	43% 3101-4154 (7255)
CR cry.eth2<$100	Noavg 82.1¢	$25.21	$32.54	+$31.98	40% 9686-14590 (24276)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.6¢	$22.56	$2.32	+$1.32	35% 18059-33813 (51872)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$47.98	$1.53	-$2	77% 12233-3755 (15988)

purplegatto

Invested

$3,109.13

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$34

Record

49%

6195-6328 (12523)

smallreceiptARB<$100

Invested

$227.29

Value

$317.57

PnL

+$14.83

Record

49%

8797-9307 (18104)

Both legs:

No$227.2989.9¢+$14.83

Yes$75.44—+$0

Bigggggggg

Invested

$254.24

Value

$252.67

PnL

-$1.57

Record

43%

3158-4259 (7417)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$367.11

Value

$245.6

PnL

-$121.51

Record

41%

2015-2858 (4873)

cowcatCTR

Yes

Invested

$356.8

Value

$145.52

PnL

-$211.28

Record

53%

1775-1556 (3331)

thefakenickCTR

Yes

Invested

$40.18

Value

$106.39

PnL

-$18.36

Record

56%

843-660 (1503)

peepeepooppoopCTR

Yes

Invested

$8.77

Value

$66.02

PnL

+$12.4

Record

51%

2399-2351 (4750)

0x75d1B199a96801338e67a6eFAa35C0028eA87A5F-1770658242710

Invested

$113.84

Value

$49

PnL

-$8.22

Record

52%

2151-2012 (4163)

merod<$100

Invested

$42.76

Value

$45.02

PnL

+$2.26

Record

43%

3101-4154 (7255)

cry.eth2<$100

Invested

$25.21

Value

$32.54

PnL

+$31.98

Record

40%

9686-14590 (24276)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.56

Value

$2.32

PnL

+$1.32

Record

35%

18059-33813 (51872)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.98

Value

$1.53

PnL

-$2

Record

77%

12233-3755 (15988)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Late

796h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.0%

95.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.