Will Los Angeles FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 96¢ · $5K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

-$291.14

Smart Money Entry

94.3¢ → 95.8¢

+2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares4,014

Combined PnL+$81.7

Yes5 traders

Total Value$499.47

Total Shares11,892

Combined PnL-$372.85

No — 55%Yes — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+30 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

820h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PU purplegatto	Noavg 94.6¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	+$30.51	49% 6287-6447 (12734)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Noavg 93.6¢	$564.25	$577.52	+$13.27	45% 2956-3648 (6604)
SM smallreceiptARB<$100	Noavg 89.9¢	$227.29	$317.73	+$14.83	46% 9372-11125 (20497)
└ No leg	Noavg 89.9¢	$227.29	$242.12	+$14.83
└ Yes leg	Yes	$75.6	$75.6	+$0
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 6.3¢	$369.84	$245.6	-$124.24	41% 2124-3048 (5172)
CO cowcatCTR	Yesavg 10.8¢	$372.76	$145.52	-$227.25	48% 1964-2118 (4082)
thefakenickCTR	Yesavg 5.1¢	$124.75	$106.39	-$18.36	50% 922-906 (1828)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 92.8¢	$90.01	$92.93	+$2.92	58% 15784-11478 (27262)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 89.4¢	$40.25	$43.11	+$2.86	43% 8732-11387 (20119)
CR cry.eth2<$100	Noavg 82.1¢	$25.21	$32.54	+$31.98	39% 10135-15757 (25892)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 95¢	$19	$19.16	+$0.16	53% 23469-20698 (44167)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$47.98	$1.53	-$2	77% 12683-3867 (16550)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$1.42	$0.43	-$1	47% 4058-4558 (8616)

purplegatto

Invested

$3,122.98

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$30.51

Record

49%

6287-6447 (12734)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Invested

$564.25

Value

$577.52

PnL

+$13.27

Record

45%

2956-3648 (6604)

smallreceiptARB<$100

Invested

$227.29

Value

$317.73

PnL

+$14.83

Record

46%

9372-11125 (20497)

Both legs:

No$227.2989.9¢+$14.83

Yes$75.6—+$0

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$369.84

Value

$245.6

PnL

-$124.24

Record

41%

2124-3048 (5172)

cowcatCTR

Yes

Invested

$372.76

Value

$145.52

PnL

-$227.25

Record

48%

1964-2118 (4082)

thefakenickCTR

Yes

Invested

$124.75

Value

$106.39

PnL

-$18.36

Record

50%

922-906 (1828)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$90.01

Value

$92.93

PnL

+$2.92

Record

58%

15784-11478 (27262)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$40.25

Value

$43.11

PnL

+$2.86

Record

43%

8732-11387 (20119)

cry.eth2<$100

Invested

$25.21

Value

$32.54

PnL

+$31.98

Record

39%

10135-15757 (25892)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19

Value

$19.16

PnL

+$0.16

Record

53%

23469-20698 (44167)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.98

Value

$1.53

PnL

-$2

Record

77%

12683-3867 (16550)

shiifooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.42

Value

$0.43

PnL

-$1

Record

47%

4058-4558 (8616)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+30 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

820h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.0%

95.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.