Will Lorenia Valles Sampedro win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 55¢ · $2K held · ends Jun 7, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 40%
$2.2K
$619.14
53.8¢ → 55¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 FrozenParasite | Yesavg 54.1¢ | $3.4K | $1.8K | +$724.91 | 55% 460-372 (832) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR | Noavg 58¢ | $277.56 | $212.95 | -$64.6 | 53% 6624-5811 (12435) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Noavg 58¢ | $183.96 | $140.39 | -$43.57 | 52% 1148-1049 (2197) |
10 101456CTR<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $92.25 | $82.1 | -$10.15 | 52% 131-120 (251) |
HE HerrieDavis<$100 | Yesavg 39¢ | $26.84 | $39.39 | +$12.55 | 36% 2060-3677 (5737) |
FrozenParasiteInvested
$3,409.54
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$724.91
Record
55%
460-372 (832)
Invested
$277.56
Value
$212.95
PnL
-$64.6
Record
53%
6624-5811 (12435)
Invested
$183.96
Value
$140.39
PnL
-$43.57
Record
52%
1148-1049 (2197)
Invested
$92.25
Value
$82.1
PnL
-$10.15
Record
52%
131-120 (251)
Invested
$26.84
Value
$39.39
PnL
+$12.55
Record
36%
2060-3677 (5737)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.