Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 56¢ · $209 held · ends Jan 2, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$209.07
$48.44
45.7¢ → 56.5¢
+24% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+27 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Late
4251h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
7 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 NiceDuckBroCTR<$100 | Yesavg 32¢ | $60.16 | $77.64 | +$22.18 | 65% 323-174 (497) |
 Ahpo<$100 | Noavg 54.1¢ | $69.95 | $73.24 | +$3.29 | 87% 1602-249 (1851) |
LE leegunner<$100 | Noavg 27.6¢ | $23.55 | $39.13 | +$15.58 | 41% 1276-1822 (3098) |
 SharkbettingComCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.4¢ | $4.92 | $13.2 | +$8.28 | 42% 271-373 (644) |
DR Dreamwire<$100 | Noavg 64.6¢ | $6.75 | $5.86 | -$0.9 | — |
NiceDuckBroCTR<$100Invested
$60.16
Value
$77.64
PnL
+$22.18
Record
65%
323-174 (497)
Ahpo<$100Invested
$69.95
Value
$73.24
PnL
+$3.29
Record
87%
1602-249 (1851)
Invested
$23.55
Value
$39.13
PnL
+$15.58
Record
41%
1276-1822 (3098)
SharkbettingComCTR<$100Invested
$4.92
Value
$13.2
PnL
+$8.28
Record
42%
271-373 (644)
Invested
$6.75
Value
$5.86
PnL
-$0.9
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.