Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Liquid Win the PGL Major Singapore 2026?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 0.5¢ · $131 held · ends Dec 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Dec 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 57%

Total Value

$130.54

Combined PnL

-$87.31

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$123.77

Total Shares124

Combined PnL-$77.05

Yes4 traders

Total Value$6.77

Total Shares1,231

Combined PnL-$10.26

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

83h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$89.56	$59.67	-$0.03	37% 16949-29332 (46281)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 99.5¢	$194.47	$39.78	-$76.98	50% 66284-66816 (133100)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$24.35	$24.32	-$0.04	46% 6652-7812 (14464)
DG DG-NOCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$13.51	$5.5	-$8.01	38% 842-1356 (2198)
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$2.7	$1.1	-$1.6	26% 601-1695 (2296)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$0.69	$0.14	-$0.54	22% 657-2370 (3027)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$0.13	$0.03	-$0.1	22% 3495-12142 (15637)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$89.56

Value

$59.67

PnL

-$0.03

Record

37%

16949-29332 (46281)

cigarettes

Invested

$194.47

Value

$39.78

PnL

-$76.98

Record

50%

66284-66816 (133100)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$24.35

Value

$24.32

PnL

-$0.04

Record

46%

6652-7812 (14464)

DG-NOCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.51

Value

$5.5

PnL

-$8.01

Record

38%

842-1356 (2198)

TheGreatBetaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.7

Value

$1.1

PnL

-$1.6

Record

26%

601-1695 (2296)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.69

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$0.54

Record

22%

657-2370 (3027)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.13

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.1

Record

22%

3495-12142 (15637)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

83h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6048.93

Max Loss

-$100.00

6148.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.