Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 11 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Lionel Messi win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?

11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $73 held · ends Oct 24, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Oct 24, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$73.49

Combined PnL

-$149.83

Smart Money Entry

1.1¢ → 0.4¢

-67% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$73.49

Total Shares20,977

Combined PnL-$149.83

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Late

204h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CoffeeDespiserCTR	Yesavg 0.9¢	$135.7	$52.5	-$83.21	50% 870-859 (1729)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$49.6	$11.11	-$38.49	73% 11084-4092 (15176)
HO HourglassCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$9.29	$2.08	-$7.21	77% 9134-2750 (11884)
GI GingerMcKennaCTR	Yesavg 1¢	$552.61	$1.93	-$3.58	38% 2935-4692 (7627)
IN influenz.ethCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$6.63	$1.49	-$5.15	42% 10152-14074 (24226)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$5.31	$1.19	-$4.12	56% 3078-2425 (5503)
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$2.9	$1.05	-$1.85	36% 1887-3307 (5194)
LE LesterDiamondCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$2.15	$0.69	-$1.47	63% 5411-3152 (8563)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$3.06	$0.69	-$2.38	42% 1898-2621 (4519)
0X 0x0E7Fa09bF44514634293b5ecC2420C50ABCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$1.87	$0.42	-$1.46	54% 114-96 (210)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$0.35	$0.35	-$0.93	7% 14-192 (206)

CoffeeDespiserCTR

Yes

Invested

$135.7

Value

$52.5

PnL

-$83.21

Record

50%

870-859 (1729)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.6

Value

$11.11

PnL

-$38.49

Record

73%

11084-4092 (15176)

HourglassCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.29

Value

$2.08

PnL

-$7.21

Record

77%

9134-2750 (11884)

GingerMcKennaCTR

Yes

Invested

$552.61

Value

$1.93

PnL

-$3.58

Record

38%

2935-4692 (7627)

influenz.ethCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.63

Value

$1.49

PnL

-$5.15

Record

42%

10152-14074 (24226)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.31

Value

$1.19

PnL

-$4.12

Record

56%

3078-2425 (5503)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.9

Value

$1.05

PnL

-$1.85

Record

36%

1887-3307 (5194)

LesterDiamondCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.15

Value

$0.69

PnL

-$1.47

Record

63%

5411-3152 (8563)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.06

Value

$0.69

PnL

-$2.38

Record

42%

1898-2621 (4519)

0x0E7Fa09bF44514634293b5ecC2420C50ABCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.87

Value

$0.42

PnL

-$1.46

Record

54%

114-96 (210)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.35

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$0.93

Record

14-192 (206)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Late

204h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.4%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7026.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

7126.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.