Will Linke be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 98¢ · $2K held · ended Sep 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$2.3K
$474.98
76.3¢ → 97.7¢
+28% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 rabbit007 | Noavg 68.9¢ | $719.57 | $1.0K | +$269.34 | 53% 349-305 (654) |
ST StraddleSeller | Noavg 84¢ | $671.88 | $781.61 | +$109.73 | 60% 171-114 (285) |
RA Railcool | Noavg 81¢ | $405 | $488.5 | +$83.5 | 51% 86-81 (167) |
HE HerrieDavis<$100 | Noavg 39.1¢ | $8.1 | $20.23 | +$12.14 | 36% 2019-3575 (5594) |
 viniiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.8¢ | $4.76 | $5.05 | +$0.29 | 73% 2660-968 (3628) |
rabbit007Invested
$719.57
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$269.34
Record
53%
349-305 (654)
Invested
$671.88
Value
$781.61
PnL
+$109.73
Record
60%
171-114 (285)
Invested
$405
Value
$488.5
PnL
+$83.5
Record
51%
86-81 (167)
Invested
$8.1
Value
$20.23
PnL
+$12.14
Record
36%
2019-3575 (5594)
viniiCTR<$100Invested
$4.76
Value
$5.05
PnL
+$0.29
Record
73%
2660-968 (3628)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.