Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (73%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Lindsay Clancy be the #1 searched person on Google this year?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 28¢ · $946 held · ends Dec 31

Yes28¢No72¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$945.65

Combined PnL

$296.66

Smart Money Entry

16.9¢ → 27.5¢

+62% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$793.67

Total Shares2,755

Combined PnL+$294.46

No2 traders

Total Value$151.98

Total Shares199

Combined PnL+$2.2

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Late

582h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

15 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WickierCTR	Yesavg 17¢	$342.31	$563.8	+$221.49	56% 480-376 (856)
HE HerrieDavisCTR	Yesavg 19.3¢	$98.39	$136.87	+$38.47	36% 2027-3621 (5648)
LO Logan.CTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$39	$93	+$34.5	41% 646-924 (1570)
PaddyAlpha<$100	Noavg 73.3¢	$86.58	$90.78	+$4.2	59% 978-672 (1650)
LI lissartter<$100	Noavg 78¢	$62.4	$61.2	-$2	42% 5193-7116 (12309)

WickierCTR

Yes

Invested

$342.31

Value

$563.8

PnL

+$221.49

Record

56%

480-376 (856)

HerrieDavisCTR

Yes

Invested

$98.39

Value

$136.87

PnL

+$38.47

Record

36%

2027-3621 (5648)

Logan.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39

Value

$93

PnL

+$34.5

Record

41%

646-924 (1570)

PaddyAlpha<$100

Invested

$86.58

Value

$90.78

PnL

+$4.2

Record

59%

978-672 (1650)

lissartter<$100

Invested

$62.4

Value

$61.2

PnL

-$2

Record

42%

5193-7116 (12309)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Late

582h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

15 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance29.3%

27.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$241.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

341.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.