Will Linda McMahon be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2029?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 86¢ · $51 held · ends Jan 1, 2029
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$50.65
$0.73
Research grade
NeutralNo at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Late
88h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $27 | $25.65 | -$1.35 | 20% 69-276 (345) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $9.23 | $8.76 | -$0.46 | 29% 862-2136 (2998) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.3¢ | $5.29 | $8.24 | +$2.95 | 12% 17-121 (138) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $7.2 | $6.84 | -$0.36 | 37% 3085-5357 (8442) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $1.21 | $1.16 | -$0.05 | 79% 286-77 (363) |
Invested
$27
Value
$25.65
PnL
-$1.35
Record
20%
69-276 (345)
Invested
$9.23
Value
$8.76
PnL
-$0.46
Record
29%
862-2136 (2998)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$5.29
Value
$8.24
PnL
+$2.95
Record
12%
17-121 (138)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$7.2
Value
$6.84
PnL
-$0.36
Record
37%
3085-5357 (8442)
Invested
$1.21
Value
$1.16
PnL
-$0.05
Record
79%
286-77 (363)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.