Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (69%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Lin Kuo-chang win the next Yilan County Magistrate election?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 31¢ · $739 held · ends Nov 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 100%
$738.96
$389.29
15.4¢ → 31¢
+102% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 31%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 69%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 NadmiCTR | Noavg 8.6¢ | $132.23 | $502.01 | +$369.78 | — |
GO god83743894CTR<$100 | Noavg 27.5¢ | $70.25 | $82.88 | +$12.63 | 17% 68-331 (399) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100 | Noavg 34¢ | $66.97 | $64.01 | -$2.95 | 48% 1229-1315 (2544) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 27.3¢ | $49.1 | $58.5 | +$9.4 | 51% 4735-4557 (9292) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Noavg 32¢ | $16 | $16.25 | +$0.25 | 38% 3334-5399 (8733) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $6.6 | $6.5 | -$0.1 | 53% 5779-5161 (10940) |
ME merodCTR<$100 | Noavg 32¢ | $6.12 | $6.21 | +$0.1 | 81% 60-14 (74) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Noavg 30¢ | $2.4 | $2.6 | +$0.2 | 40% 1346-2016 (3362) |
NadmiCTRInvested
$132.23
Value
$502.01
PnL
+$369.78
Record
—
Invested
$70.25
Value
$82.88
PnL
+$12.63
Record
17%
68-331 (399)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100Invested
$66.97
Value
$64.01
PnL
-$2.95
Record
48%
1229-1315 (2544)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$49.1
Value
$58.5
PnL
+$9.4
Record
51%
4735-4557 (9292)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$16
Value
$16.25
PnL
+$0.25
Record
38%
3334-5399 (8733)
Invested
$6.6
Value
$6.5
PnL
-$0.1
Record
53%
5779-5161 (10940)
Invested
$6.12
Value
$6.21
PnL
+$0.1
Record
81%
60-14 (74)
Invested
$2.4
Value
$2.6
PnL
+$0.2
Record
40%
1346-2016 (3362)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
31.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.