Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Lillestrom finish first in UEL league phase?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $244 held · ends Feb 28, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Feb 28, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$244.27

Combined PnL

-$48.63

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$244.27

Total Shares2,111

Combined PnL-$48.63

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Mature

39h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI BiggggggggCTR	Yes	$198.37	$198.37	-$39.02	32% 3312-7188 (10500)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.03	$11.85	-$2.33	17% 1379-6720 (8099)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$1.14	$10.9	-$2.14	23% 1826-6151 (7977)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.03	$8.41	-$1.65	27% 2563-6999 (9562)
P1 P1kasoCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$0.87	$5.41	-$1.06	61% 864-548 (1412)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.02	$5.33	-$1.05	49% 6603-6987 (13590)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.02	$2.37	-$0.47	17% 406-2034 (2440)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yes	$1.6	$1.6	-$0.31	25% 513-1544 (2057)
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$0.61	$0.03	-$0.58	28% 589-1509 (2098)

BiggggggggCTR

Yes

Invested

$198.37

Value

$198.37

PnL

-$39.02

Record

32%

3312-7188 (10500)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$11.85

PnL

-$2.33

Record

17%

1379-6720 (8099)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.14

Value

$10.9

PnL

-$2.14

Record

23%

1826-6151 (7977)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$8.41

PnL

-$1.65

Record

27%

2563-6999 (9562)

P1kasoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.87

Value

$5.41

PnL

-$1.06

Record

61%

864-548 (1412)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$5.33

PnL

-$1.05

Record

49%

6603-6987 (13590)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$2.37

PnL

-$0.47

Record

17%

406-2034 (2440)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.6

Value

$1.6

PnL

-$0.31

Record

25%

513-1544 (2057)

TheGreatBetaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.61

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.58

Record

28%

589-1509 (2098)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Mature

39h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.