Will Likud be in the next Israeli government?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 67¢ · $1K held · ends Jun 30, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$1.2K
$78.82
61.3¢ → 66.5¢
+8% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 67%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LJ LJa7io23MCv954j | Noavg 61¢ | $846 | $921.56 | +$75.56 | 64% 82-46 (128) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $713.44 | $156.19 | -$18.23 | 36% 14340-25707 (40047) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 64¢ | $107.88 | $112.99 | -$70.16 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 38.2¢ | $54.98 | $43.2 | +$51.94 | |
 crypto-basenji<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $64.51 | $65.48 | +$0.49 | 39% 160-253 (413) |
WA wan123<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $16.25 | $16.63 | +$0.38 | 40% 194-295 (489) |
IM immanuelcan<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $11 | $13.4 | +$2.4 | 54% 898-779 (1677) |
Invested
$846
Value
$921.56
PnL
+$75.56
Record
64%
82-46 (128)
Invested
$713.44
Value
$156.19
PnL
-$18.23
Record
36%
14340-25707 (40047)
Both legs:
crypto-basenji<$100Invested
$64.51
Value
$65.48
PnL
+$0.49
Record
39%
160-253 (413)
Invested
$16.25
Value
$16.63
PnL
+$0.38
Record
40%
194-295 (489)
Invested
$11
Value
$13.4
PnL
+$2.4
Record
54%
898-779 (1677)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.