Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (96%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 3.5¢ · $95 held · ends Nov 29
⚠️
Avoid
No
8
No 88%
$95.38
-$2.81
Research grade
AvoidNo at 4%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 96%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 probability<$100 | Yesavg 92.8¢ | $82.42 | $81.74 | -$0.68 | — 1-11 (12) |
 dips.CTR<$100 | Noavg 4¢ | $8.75 | $7.14 | -$1.08 | 41% 176-256 (432) |
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100 | Noavg 4¢ | $2.4 | $2.13 | -$0.27 | 25% 806-2476 (3282) |
KO korda77CTR<$100 | Noavg 4¢ | $1.98 | $1.76 | -$0.22 | 86% 32-5 (37) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100 | Noavg 4¢ | $1.2 | $1.2 | +$0 | 39% 1043-1626 (2669) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 4¢ | $0.8 | $0.8 | +$0 | 50% 4477-4426 (8903) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Noavg 8¢ | $1.11 | $0.55 | -$0.55 | 35% 2852-5315 (8167) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Noavg 4¢ | $0.07 | $0.06 | -$0.01 | 25% 1194-3512 (4706) |
probability<$100Invested
$82.42
Value
$81.74
PnL
-$0.68
Record
—
1-11 (12)
dips.CTR<$100Invested
$8.75
Value
$7.14
PnL
-$1.08
Record
41%
176-256 (432)
Invested
$2.4
Value
$2.13
PnL
-$0.27
Record
25%
806-2476 (3282)
Invested
$1.98
Value
$1.76
PnL
-$0.22
Record
86%
32-5 (37)
Invested
$1.2
Value
$1.2
PnL
+$0
Record
39%
1043-1626 (2669)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$0.8
Value
$0.8
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
4477-4426 (8903)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$1.11
Value
$0.55
PnL
-$0.55
Record
35%
2852-5315 (8167)
Invested
$0.07
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$0.01
Record
25%
1194-3512 (4706)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
3.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.