Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Levski Sofia win the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League Championship?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 2.1¢ · $173 held · ends May 30, 2027

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Sun, May 30, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$173.35

Combined PnL

-$93.71

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$141.07

Total Shares142

Combined PnL-$95.67

Yes6 traders

Total Value$32.28

Total Shares1,420

Combined PnL+$1.96

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Late

155h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$74.85	$75.75	-$2.02	55% 25592-21266 (46858)
balthazar	Noavg 98.8¢	$251.98	$63.38	-$93.6	30% 35522-84044 (119566)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$11.35	$12.5	+$1.15	54% 3219-2797 (6016)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$8.73	$9.25	+$0.51	30% 2958-6849 (9807)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$3.38	$7.72	+$0.43	62% 35967-22489 (58456)
AH aHjCz<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$1.99	$1.94	-$0.05	45% 32135-39276 (71411)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yes	$1.2	$1.2	+$0.07	50% 9346-9412 (18758)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Yes	$1.08	$1.08	-$0.12	32% 8615-18479 (27094)
VA vamosgamingCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.1	$0.54	-$0.08	17% 246-1180 (1426)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$74.85

Value

$75.75

PnL

-$2.02

Record

55%

25592-21266 (46858)

balthazar

Invested

$251.98

Value

$63.38

PnL

-$93.6

Record

30%

35522-84044 (119566)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.35

Value

$12.5

PnL

+$1.15

Record

54%

3219-2797 (6016)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.73

Value

$9.25

PnL

+$0.51

Record

30%

2958-6849 (9807)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.38

Value

$7.72

PnL

+$0.43

Record

62%

35967-22489 (58456)

aHjCz<$100

Invested

$1.99

Value

$1.94

PnL

-$0.05

Record

45%

32135-39276 (71411)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.2

Value

$1.2

PnL

+$0.07

Record

50%

9346-9412 (18758)

korda77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.08

Value

$1.08

PnL

-$0.12

Record

32%

8615-18479 (27094)

vamosgamingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.1

Value

$0.54

PnL

-$0.08

Record

17%

246-1180 (1426)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Late

155h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.3%

2.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2927.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

3028.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.