Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Lerone Murphy be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $80 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$80.26

Combined PnL

-$3.46

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$79.8

Total Shares80

Combined PnL+$4.61

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0.46

Total Shares182

Combined PnL-$8.07

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
4751346<$100	Noavg 94¢	$80	$79.8	+$4.61	72% 1381-537 (1918)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$5.89	$0.28	-$5.61	43% 5588-7271 (12859)
VA vamosgamingCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.18	$0.13	-$2.51	17% 246-1180 (1426)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.18	$0.05	+$0.05	36% 9048-16196 (25244)

4751346<$100

Invested

$80

Value

$79.8

PnL

+$4.61

Record

72%

1381-537 (1918)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.89

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$5.61

Record

43%

5588-7271 (12859)

vamosgamingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.18

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$2.51

Record

17%

246-1180 (1426)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.18

Value

$0.05

PnL

+$0.05

Record

36%

9048-16196 (25244)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.3%

0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7523.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

7623.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.