Will Lens win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship?

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 99¢ · $931 held · ends Jun 15, 2027

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Tue, Jun 15, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$930.96

Combined PnL

-$104.98

Smart Money Entry

97.5¢ → 98.9¢

+1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$825.79

Total Shares832

Combined PnL+$15.19

Yes3 traders

Total Value$105.17

Total Shares15,024

Combined PnL-$120.17

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Late

573h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (12 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 96.7¢	$340.43	$349.53	+$9.1	46% 9372-11125 (20497)
NO northdrawer	Noavg 97.6¢	$154.24	$156.89	+$2.65	58% 16798-12127 (28925)
GO god83743894	Noavg 97.4¢	$116.92	$119.16	+$2.24	43% 10588-14062 (24650)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 1.7¢	$340.44	$104.4	-$119.6	41% 2124-3048 (5172)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$74.08	$74.48	+$0.4	47% 10328-11796 (22124)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$39.68	$39.72	+$0.04	53% 23469-20698 (44167)
PL plainfolder<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$29.62	$29.79	+$0.17	31% 4440-9727 (14167)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99¢	$24.75	$24.83	+$0.07	47% 3792-4260 (8052)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 97.3¢	$19.47	$19.86	+$0.39	58% 15784-11478 (27262)
AH aHjCz<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$11.41	$11.54	+$0.13	36% 5882-10606 (16488)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.53	$0.41	-$0.12	19% 2850-12163 (15013)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$0.8	$0.35	-$0.45	45% 2956-3648 (6604)

smallreceipt

Invested

$340.43

Value

$349.53

PnL

+$9.1

Record

46%

9372-11125 (20497)

northdrawer

Invested

$154.24

Value

$156.89

PnL

+$2.65

Record

58%

16798-12127 (28925)

god83743894

Invested

$116.92

Value

$119.16

PnL

+$2.24

Record

43%

10588-14062 (24650)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$340.44

Value

$104.4

PnL

-$119.6

Record

41%

2124-3048 (5172)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$74.08

Value

$74.48

PnL

+$0.4

Record

47%

10328-11796 (22124)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$39.68

Value

$39.72

PnL

+$0.04

Record

53%

23469-20698 (44167)

plainfolder<$100

Invested

$29.62

Value

$29.79

PnL

+$0.17

Record

31%

4440-9727 (14167)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$24.75

Value

$24.83

PnL

+$0.07

Record

47%

3792-4260 (8052)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$19.47

Value

$19.86

PnL

+$0.39

Record

58%

15784-11478 (27262)

aHjCz<$100

Invested

$11.41

Value

$11.54

PnL

+$0.13

Record

36%

5882-10606 (16488)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.53

Value

$0.41

PnL

-$0.12

Record

19%

2850-12163 (15013)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.8

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$0.45

Record

45%

2956-3648 (6604)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Late

573h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (12 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.