Will Legacy Win the PGL Major Singapore 2026?
11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 100%
$1.1K
-$1.02
98.9¢ → 98.8¢
+0% since entry · 11 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
11 of 11 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
11 traders
Top 2 hold 54%
Freshness
Late
74h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar | Noavg 98.9¢ | $365.93 | $365.56 | -$0.37 | 50% 4477-4426 (8903) |
CI cigarettes | Noavg 98.9¢ | $253.26 | $253.05 | -$0.21 | 52% 5277-4791 (10068) |
QU quietparcel | Noavg 98.9¢ | $148.35 | $148.2 | -$0.15 | 10% 25-236 (261) |
KA kaxel78 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $146.24 | $146.1 | -$0.15 | 28% 522-1370 (1892) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $59.31 | $59.28 | -$0.03 | 4% 15-322 (337) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $49.45 | $49.4 | -$0.05 | 44% 1068-1376 (2444) |
PO pollo07<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $49.45 | $49.4 | -$0.05 | 27% 499-1317 (1816) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 98.7¢ | $29.61 | $29.64 | +$0.03 | 25% 806-2476 (3282) |
VI VictorLudorum<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $29.67 | $29.64 | -$0.03 | — 0-13 (13) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $5.74 | $5.73 | -$0.01 | 35% 2852-5315 (8167) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $5.26 | $5.26 | -$0.01 | 52% 223-209 (432) |
balthazarInvested
$365.93
Value
$365.56
PnL
-$0.37
Record
50%
4477-4426 (8903)
Invested
$253.26
Value
$253.05
PnL
-$0.21
Record
52%
5277-4791 (10068)
Invested
$148.35
Value
$148.2
PnL
-$0.15
Record
10%
25-236 (261)
Invested
$146.24
Value
$146.1
PnL
-$0.15
Record
28%
522-1370 (1892)
Invested
$59.31
Value
$59.28
PnL
-$0.03
Record
4%
15-322 (337)
Invested
$49.45
Value
$49.4
PnL
-$0.05
Record
44%
1068-1376 (2444)
Invested
$49.45
Value
$49.4
PnL
-$0.05
Record
27%
499-1317 (1816)
Invested
$29.61
Value
$29.64
PnL
+$0.03
Record
25%
806-2476 (3282)
Invested
$29.67
Value
$29.64
PnL
-$0.03
Record
—
0-13 (13)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$5.74
Value
$5.73
PnL
-$0.01
Record
35%
2852-5315 (8167)
Invested
$5.26
Value
$5.26
PnL
-$0.01
Record
52%
223-209 (432)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.