Will Legacy Win the BLAST Rivals Hong Kong 2026?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 98¢ · $195 held · ends Nov 17

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$195.5

Combined PnL

-$0.21

Smart Money Entry

99¢ → 98¢

-1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$193.28

Total Shares197

Combined PnL-$1.56

Yes1 trader

Total Value$2.22

Total Shares89

Combined PnL+$1.36

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99¢	$72.04	$71.24	-$0.8	51% 4602-4505 (9107)
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$32.25	$31.74	-$0.51	53% 1602-1414 (3016)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99¢	$29.7	$29.85	+$0.15	27% 923-2513 (3436)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$29.61	$29.37	-$0.24	14% 55-329 (384)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$10.08	$10	-$0.08	47% 309-342 (651)
AL alex20011<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$9.55	$9.48	-$0.08	44% 1081-1380 (2461)
VI VictorLudorum<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$7.28	$7.34	+$0.06	— 2-14 (16)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$4.33	$4.26	-$0.07	30% 2654-6198 (8852)
JO JohnnyWinsCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$0.86	$2.22	+$1.36	0% 0-68 (68)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$72.04

Value

$71.24

PnL

-$0.8

Record

51%

4602-4505 (9107)

Bigggggggg<$100

Invested

$32.25

Value

$31.74

PnL

-$0.51

Record

53%

1602-1414 (3016)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$29.7

Value

$29.85

PnL

+$0.15

Record

27%

923-2513 (3436)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$29.61

Value

$29.37

PnL

-$0.24

Record

14%

55-329 (384)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$10.08

Value

$10

PnL

-$0.08

Record

47%

309-342 (651)

alex20011<$100

Invested

$9.55

Value

$9.48

PnL

-$0.08

Record

44%

1081-1380 (2461)

VictorLudorum<$100

Invested

$7.28

Value

$7.34

PnL

+$0.06

Record

—

2-14 (16)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$4.33

Value

$4.26

PnL

-$0.07

Record

30%

2654-6198 (8852)

JohnnyWinsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.86

Value

$2.22

PnL

+$1.36

Record

0-68 (68)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.0%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.