Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Leeds United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?

6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $298 held · ends May 30, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, May 30, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$297.6

Combined PnL

$-3.3K

Smart Money Entry

0.3¢ → 0.1¢

-80% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$297.6

Total Shares595,208

Combined PnL$-3.3K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

672h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

10 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LE leegunnerCTR	Yesavg 0.2¢	$1.2K	$293.59	-$914.76	41% 1295-1879 (3174)
FO forgotmydinnerCTR	Yesavg 4.2¢	$200	$2.4	-$197.6	19% 49-210 (259)
CI cigarettesCTR	Yesavg 4.2¢	$12.0K	$1.03	$-2.1K	56% 18332-14683 (33015)
DG DG-NOCTR<$100	Yes	$0.35	$0.35	-$14.67	44% 650-818 (1468)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yes	$0.22	$0.22	-$6.35	56% 3077-2415 (5492)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Yes	$0.02	$0.02	-$0.47	43% 5953-7860 (13813)

leegunnerCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,208.35

Value

$293.59

PnL

-$914.76

Record

41%

1295-1879 (3174)

forgotmydinnerCTR

Yes

Invested

$200

Value

$2.4

PnL

-$197.6

Record

19%

49-210 (259)

cigarettesCTR

Yes

Invested

$12,018.64

Value

$1.03

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

56%

18332-14683 (33015)

DG-NOCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.35

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$14.67

Record

44%

650-818 (1468)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.22

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$6.35

Record

56%

3077-2415 (5492)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.47

Record

43%

5953-7860 (13813)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

672h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

10 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.