Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Lech Poznan finish first in UEL league phase?
9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1 held · ends Feb 28, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
9
Yes 100%
$1.18
-$12.54
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0¢ | $0.09 | $0.43 | +$0.34 | 47% 3841-4297 (8138) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.2¢ | $8.92 | $0.4 | -$8.52 | 40% 6553-9836 (16389) |
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0¢ | $0.03 | $0.07 | +$0.04 | 27% 2541-6899 (9440) |
 thefakenickCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $1.56 | $0.06 | -$1.5 | 50% 925-910 (1835) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.03 | $0.05 | +$0.02 | 17% 1355-6567 (7922) |
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.05 | $0.05 | -$0.58 | 28% 576-1487 (2063) |
P1 P1kasoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.9¢ | $0.87 | $0.05 | -$0.82 | 61% 864-548 (1412) |
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0¢ | $0.02 | $0.05 | -$1.05 | 49% 6582-6938 (13520) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.02 | $0.02 | -$0.47 | 16% 389-1977 (2366) |
Invested
$0.09
Value
$0.43
PnL
+$0.34
Record
47%
3841-4297 (8138)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$8.92
Value
$0.4
PnL
-$8.52
Record
40%
6553-9836 (16389)
Invested
$0.03
Value
$0.07
PnL
+$0.04
Record
27%
2541-6899 (9440)
thefakenickCTR<$100Invested
$1.56
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$1.5
Record
50%
925-910 (1835)
Invested
$0.03
Value
$0.05
PnL
+$0.02
Record
17%
1355-6567 (7922)
Invested
$0.05
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$0.58
Record
28%
576-1487 (2063)
Invested
$0.87
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$0.82
Record
61%
864-548 (1412)
Invested
$0.02
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$1.05
Record
49%
6582-6938 (13520)
Invested
$0.02
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$0.47
Record
16%
389-1977 (2366)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.