Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Leader 33 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $79 held · ends Dec 31
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
9
Yes 100%
$78.9
$0
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Mature
38h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RA ratedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $32.64 | $32.64 | +$0 | 29% 2943-7182 (10125) |
CR cry.eth2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $31.1 | $31.1 | +$0 | 39% 10163-15762 (25925) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $6.6 | $6.6 | +$0 | 67% 27537-13843 (41380) |
 flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $4.29 | $4.29 | +$0 | 39% 1022-1574 (2596) |
KO korda77CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $2.64 | $2.64 | +$0 | 38% 7172-11790 (18962) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.74 | $0.74 | +$0 | 17% 1350-6561 (7911) |
LP lpgbCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0¢ | $0.34 | $0.34 | +$0 | 27% 598-1657 (2255) |
KL klli27CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0¢ | $0.29 | $0.29 | +$0 | 30% 495-1167 (1662) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0¢ | $0.27 | $0.27 | +$0 | 54% 12531-10868 (23399) |
Invested
$32.64
Value
$32.64
PnL
+$0
Record
29%
2943-7182 (10125)
Invested
$31.1
Value
$31.1
PnL
+$0
Record
39%
10163-15762 (25925)
Invested
$6.6
Value
$6.6
PnL
+$0
Record
67%
27537-13843 (41380)
flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100Invested
$4.29
Value
$4.29
PnL
+$0
Record
39%
1022-1574 (2596)
Invested
$2.64
Value
$2.64
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
7172-11790 (18962)
Invested
$0.74
Value
$0.74
PnL
+$0
Record
17%
1350-6561 (7911)
Invested
$0.34
Value
$0.34
PnL
+$0
Record
27%
598-1657 (2255)
Invested
$0.29
Value
$0.29
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
495-1167 (1662)
Invested
$0.27
Value
$0.27
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
12531-10868 (23399)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.