Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 12 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Leader 3 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
12 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $103 held · ends Dec 31
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
12
Yes 100%
$102.51
$0
0.4¢ → 0.4¢
-5% since entry · 12 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
12 of 12 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
12 traders
Top 2 hold 62%
Freshness
Mature
37h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RA ratedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $32.64 | $32.64 | +$0 | 29% 2941-7182 (10123) |
CR cry.eth2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $31.1 | $31.1 | +$0 | 39% 10157-15760 (25917) |
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $23.19 | $23.19 | +$0 | 33% 6996-13985 (20981) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $6.6 | $6.6 | +$0 | 67% 27520-13840 (41360) |
 flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $4.29 | $4.29 | +$0 | 39% 1021-1574 (2595) |
KO korda77CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $2.64 | $2.64 | +$0 | 38% 7165-11790 (18955) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.74 | $0.74 | +$0 | 17% 1340-6557 (7897) |
LP lpgbCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0¢ | $0.34 | $0.34 | +$0 | 26% 590-1655 (2245) |
ME merodCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0¢ | $0.31 | $0.31 | +$0 | 34% 3328-6351 (9679) |
KL klli27CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0¢ | $0.29 | $0.29 | +$0 | 30% 491-1165 (1656) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0¢ | $0.27 | $0.27 | +$0 | 54% 12513-10832 (23345) |
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.12 | $0.12 | +$0 | 49% 6566-6933 (13499) |
Invested
$32.64
Value
$32.64
PnL
+$0
Record
29%
2941-7182 (10123)
Invested
$31.1
Value
$31.1
PnL
+$0
Record
39%
10157-15760 (25917)
Invested
$23.19
Value
$23.19
PnL
+$0
Record
33%
6996-13985 (20981)
Invested
$6.6
Value
$6.6
PnL
+$0
Record
67%
27520-13840 (41360)
flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100Invested
$4.29
Value
$4.29
PnL
+$0
Record
39%
1021-1574 (2595)
Invested
$2.64
Value
$2.64
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
7165-11790 (18955)
Invested
$0.74
Value
$0.74
PnL
+$0
Record
17%
1340-6557 (7897)
Invested
$0.34
Value
$0.34
PnL
+$0
Record
26%
590-1655 (2245)
Invested
$0.31
Value
$0.31
PnL
+$0
Record
34%
3328-6351 (9679)
Invested
$0.29
Value
$0.29
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
491-1165 (1656)
Invested
$0.27
Value
$0.27
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
12513-10832 (23345)
Invested
$0.12
Value
$0.12
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
6566-6933 (13499)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.